Elevator Industry Second Covid-19 Survey Results Analysis

DateNovember-December 2020 Print

Elevator World, Inc., the German elevator association VFA Interlift e.V. and fair organizer AFAG, in association with Credit Suisse, recently shared results of its second survey of elevator industry representatives on current industry status and anticipated effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on business.

The survey received 572 responses, more than the first iteration that received 550 responses. Credit Suisse Managing Director and Head of European Capital Good Equity Research Andre Kukhnin assisted with preparation of a chart analysis, including breakdowns by country, of the results (excluding China, as, in July [EWT September-October], only a few of the responses were from that country, and an even comparison of previous and current results was needed). The most recent survey included a new question about the competitive environment that pointed to toughening competition globally across manufacturers, service providers and components suppliers.

Additional observations include:

Respondents in Germany and North America were most positive, while those in Asia (excluding China), South America and the Middle East were most cautious.

Industry associations and consultants remain most cautious, while all divisions of the industry (component suppliers, manufacturers and service providers) have become positive.

Overall, the industry has become slightly less cautious, with 29% still expecting unfavorable development over the next six months (the same as in July), but with 24% now expecting favorable development (versus 19% previously).

Germany and North America both had improved outlooks compared to in July. Europe (excluding Germany) remained broadly unchanged in terms of negativity, while South America improved.

Outlook in Asia (excluding China) worsened slightly.

Consistent with July, uncertainty about economic policy remains a perceived limiting factor for business performance.

The level of concern about demand, financial constraints and materials/equipment shortages lessened slightly.

Employment outlook shifted from slightly negative in July to slightly positive.

Globally, business activity is expected to be 5% below pre-pandemic levels, with Germany most positive and nearly fully recovered and South America and Asia (excluding China) most negative, with business nearly 10% below pre-pandemic levels.